Strait of Hormuz Monitor
This page aggregates 47 live crowd-forecast markets on the Strait of Hormuz crisis from Manifold, Polymarket — covering when strait traffic returns to normal, whether Iran formalizes a blockade, how many ships transit each week, and where oil prices head. The most-traded question, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?", currently sits at 19.5% on $11.4M of volume. As of 2026-09-06, the IMF PortWatch benchmark those markets resolve against shows a 7-day moving average of 3.1 ship arrivals per day at the Strait of Hormuz, about 4% of the pre-crisis ~78.5/day norm and well below the 60-arrival "normal" threshold. These are third-party markets shown for context, not the site’s own data or investment advice.
IMF PortWatch — ship-arrival benchmark
| 7-day avg ship arrivals | 3.1 / 60for “normal” |
| Latest daily arrivals (2026-09-06) | 6 (2 tankers) |
| Share of pre-crisis norm (~78.5/day) | 4% |
Source: IMF PortWatch. Crisis onset 2026-02-28.
Top prediction markets by activity
| Market question | Source | Odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Polymarket | 19.5% | $11.4M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | Polymarket | 0.1% | $2.2M |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | Polymarket | 7.5% | $630K |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | Polymarket | 12.5% | $308K |
| Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31? | Polymarket | 12% | $48K |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7? | Polymarket | 18.9% | $43K |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7? | Polymarket | 7.7% | $35K |
| Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30? | Polymarket | 60% | $27K |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of September? | Polymarket | 71.5% | $25K |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September? | Polymarket | 52.5% | $19K |
Live odds from public prediction markets — third-party crowd forecasts, not the site's own data. Polymarket/Kalshi are real-money; Manifold is play-money. For context, not investment advice.
Strait of Hormuz Prediction Markets — Live Odds
Crowd-forecast odds on the crisis — when the strait reopens, whether Iran formalizes a blockade, where oil prices head — aggregated from public prediction markets. Third-party crowd forecasts, not the site's own data. For context, not investment advice.