Strait of Hormuz Monitor
This page aggregates 37 live crowd-forecast markets on the Strait of Hormuz crisis from Manifold, Polymarket — covering when strait traffic returns to normal, whether Iran formalizes a blockade, how many ships transit each week, and where oil prices head. The most-traded question, "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?", currently sits at 56.5% on $6.2M of volume. As of 2026-07-23, the IMF PortWatch benchmark those markets resolve against shows a 7-day moving average of 11.1 ship arrivals per day at the Strait of Hormuz, about 15% of the pre-crisis ~76.1/day norm and well below the 60-arrival "normal" threshold. These are third-party markets shown for context, not the site’s own data or investment advice.
IMF PortWatch — ship-arrival benchmark
| 7-day avg ship arrivals | 11.1 / 60for “normal” |
| Latest daily arrivals (2026-07-23) | 10 (2 tankers) |
| Share of pre-crisis norm (~76.1/day) | 15% |
Source: IMF PortWatch. Crisis onset 2026-02-28.
Top prediction markets by activity
| Market question | Source | Odds | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Polymarket | 56.5% | $6.2M |
| Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? | Polymarket | 0.4% | $1.6M |
| Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? | Polymarket | 1.3% | $478K |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July? | Polymarket | 96.9% | $280K |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20? | Polymarket | 2% | $174K |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20? | Polymarket | 97.5% | $18K |
| How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27? | Polymarket | 4.6% | $15K |
| Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July? | Polymarket | 30.5% | $13K |
| How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 27? | Polymarket | 70.5% | $1K |
| Will a canal be created in the Strait of Hormuz using nuclear weapons? | Manifold | 0.9% | — |
Live odds from public prediction markets — third-party crowd forecasts, not the site's own data. Polymarket/Kalshi are real-money; Manifold is play-money. For context, not investment advice.
Strait of Hormuz Prediction Markets — Live Odds
Crowd-forecast odds on the crisis — when the strait reopens, whether Iran formalizes a blockade, where oil prices head — aggregated from public prediction markets. Third-party crowd forecasts, not the site's own data. For context, not investment advice.