When Will the Strait of Hormuz Reopen?
No firm reopening date has been set. The strait is severely restricted, roughly day 154 of the disruption that began 28 Feb 2026. The most heavily traded public market on the question — Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?" — currently prices it at about 48%. The verdict here is computed live from IMF PortWatch satellite data and observed AIS transits, so it flips back to OPEN automatically when traffic returns.
As of . Verdict anchored to IMF PortWatch satellite transit data.
Where recovery stands right now
What prediction markets are pricing
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Polymarket · $6.4M vol48%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Polymarket · $300k vol100%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of July?Polymarket · $14k vol8%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?Polymarket · $1k vol10%
- Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?Polymarket · $128 vol42%
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of August? [Polymarket]Manifold5%
Live odds from public prediction markets — third-party crowd forecasts, not the site's own data. Polymarket/Kalshi are real-money; Manifold is play-money. For context, not investment advice.
How reopening will actually be measured
There is unlikely to be a single moment when the Strait of Hormuz is declared open. Reopening is a measurable recovery in traffic, not an announcement, and a political statement can easily run days or weeks ahead of vessels actually sailing. The verdict on this site is computed from IMF PortWatch satellite transit counts against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 74 commercial ship arrivals per day. When the seven-day average recovers, the verdict flips to OPEN automatically — nobody edits it by hand.
Two lagging indicators are worth watching as confirmation. War-risk insurance is the first hard constraint: underwriters price observed safety rather than announced intent, so premiums typically stay elevated well past a ceasefire, and a voyage nobody will insure does not happen regardless of the legal status of the waterway. The second is carrier behaviour— major container lines and tanker operators publicly resuming Gulf calls is a stronger signal than any communiqué, because it represents firms putting their own hulls at risk.
On history: the strait has never been fully closed for a sustained period in the modern era, despite repeated threats. The closest precedent is the 1980–1988 Tanker War, when hundreds of vessels were attacked during the Iran–Iraq conflict yet traffic continued at reduced volume under naval escort. That episode is why analysts have long treated a total, lasting closure as unlikely — the strait matters to Iran's own economy too, and partial operation has historically served every party better than a shutdown.
Treat the market odds above as a sentiment gauge rather than a forecast. They are third-party crowd estimates, they move sharply on headlines, and thin markets can be badly mispriced. We show the venue and the traded volume next to every number precisely so you can discount the thin ones.